Research — The Holding Period

Why the Market's Long-Run Gains Come From a Few Unusual Stocks Most stocks underperform cash over the long run. A small number account for essentially all net wealth creation. What the long winners share — and what that means for a 25-year pick.
The Long-Duration Compounder Framework What separates a 25-year compounder from a good business with a limited runway. The six non-negotiable traits, the moat hierarchy, and the named decision rules that shape every pick.
The Subtraction Framework The index guarantees exposure to rare right-tail winners. If predicting those winners in advance is hard, a parallel claim may be more tractable: remove probable wealth destroyers while preserving enough breadth to capture them.
The Orientation Audit A protocol for evaluating whether a business updates its model when the world changes. Three dimensions, one critical rule, and why the pattern matters more than any individual score.
The Punctuation Event Database A living record of companies tested by crisis, adaptation, and model revision. The database asks one question: did the organization demonstrate the capacity to destroy and rebuild its own operating model when its prior beliefs proved wrong?
The Failure Library The negative image of the compounder framework. A taxonomy of the 16 ways apparently attractive, high-ROIC businesses become permanent capital mistakes.
The No-Pick Rule The quarterly cadence is a commitment device, not a quota. If no candidate clears the underwriting bar, the correct name is no name.
Drawdown Discipline Holding through drawdowns is not a slogan. It requires distinguishing thesis-preserving drawdowns from thesis-breaking ones before the pain arrives, not during it.