Research
Frameworks, company studies, and evidence files for long-duration public equity research, grouped by horizon. The archive is meant to compound.
Five-Year Winners
The practical research lane: measurable five-year business change, underwritten before it is consensus.
A ranked historical five-year winners table is intentionally not published yet. The data path is unresolved, and a survivor-only ranking would mislead more than it informs. Standalone five-year research files will be added as the framework clears pilot validation.
Twenty-Five-Year Experiment
- The Long-Duration Compounder Framework What separates a 25-year compounder from a good business with a limited runway. The six non-negotiable traits, the moat hierarchy, and the named decision rules that shape every pick.
- The Orientation Audit A protocol for evaluating whether a business updates its model when the world changes. Three dimensions, one critical rule, and why the pattern matters more than any individual score.
- The Punctuation Event Database A living record of companies tested by crisis, adaptation, and model revision. The database asks one question: did the organization demonstrate the capacity to destroy and rebuild its own operating model when its prior beliefs proved wrong?
- The No-Pick Rule The quarterly cadence is a commitment device, not a quota. If no candidate clears the underwriting bar, the correct name is no name.
- Drawdown Discipline Holding through drawdowns is not a slogan. It requires distinguishing thesis-preserving drawdowns from thesis-breaking ones before the pain arrives, not during it.
Shared Base Rates and Failure Work
- Why the Market's Long-Run Gains Come From a Few Unusual Stocks Most stocks underperform cash over the long run. A small number account for essentially all net wealth creation. What the long winners share — and what that means for a 25-year pick.
- Right-Tail Preservation Also called the Subtraction Framework. The index works because it owns the rare outliers. This research asks whether a broad portfolio can preserve that right-tail exposure while removing businesses structurally unlikely to become long-term wealth creators — and holds every candidate rule to a do-no-harm standard before any exclusion is treated as real.
- The Failure Library The negative image of the compounder framework. A taxonomy of the 16 ways apparently attractive, high-ROIC businesses become permanent capital mistakes.