Key Long-Term Benchmarks
S&P 500 composite, 1926–2024. Annualized figures.
1926–2024
Inflation-adjusted
Historical mean
2007–2009
Annual Returns by Decade
Total return (price + dividends reinvested), annualized per decade. Source: Robert Shiller data library, Dimensional Fund Advisors.
| Decade | Price Return (Ann.) | Dividend Yield (Avg.) | Total Return (Ann.) | CPI Inflation (Ann.) | Real Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930s | −5.3% | +5.8% | +0.5% | −2.0% | +2.5% |
| 1940s | +9.2% | +5.3% | +14.5% | −5.6% | +8.9% |
| 1950s | +13.6% | +5.8% | +19.4% | −2.2% | +17.2% |
| 1960s | +4.4% | +3.4% | +7.8% | −2.5% | +5.3% |
| 1970s | +1.6% | +4.3% | +5.9% | −7.4% | −1.5% |
| 1980s | +12.6% | +4.9% | +17.5% | −5.1% | +12.4% |
| 1990s | +15.3% | +2.9% | +18.2% | −2.9% | +15.3% |
| 2000s | −2.7% | +1.8% | −1.0% | −2.6% | −3.6% |
| 2010s | +11.2% | +2.4% | +13.6% | −1.7% | +11.9% |
| 1926–2024 Avg. | +6.3% | +4.2% | +10.5% | −3.0% | +7.5% |
Note: Figures are approximate annualized returns for each decade. Real returns calculated using CPI deflator. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rolling Holding Period Analysis
Probability of positive real returns for all rolling periods of given length, 1926–2024. S&P 500 total return index.
| Holding Period | % Periods Positive (Nominal) | % Periods Positive (Real) | Best Period Return | Worst Period Return | Median Annualized Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 73% | 64% | +53.4% | −43.3% | +14.8% |
| 3 Years | 84% | 74% | +33.9% | −27.8% | +11.4% |
| 5 Years | 88% | 79% | +28.6% | −12.5% | +10.8% |
| 10 Years | 95% | 85% | +20.1% | −4.9% | +10.3% |
| 15 Years | 99% | 91% | +18.9% | −1.2% | +10.1% |
| 20 Years | 100% | 96% | +17.9% | +3.1% | +10.7% |
| 30 Years | 100% | 100% | +14.8% | +8.4% | +10.9% |
Highlighted rows indicate holding periods with no historically negative real return outcome. Data covers all rolling periods within 1926–2024 dataset.
CAPE Ratio at Key Market Turning Points
Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E (CAPE) at major market peaks and troughs. Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University.
| Date | Market Event | CAPE Ratio | Subsequent 10-Yr Ann. Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1929 | Market Peak (pre-Crash) | 32.6 | −0.1% |
| Jun 1932 | Great Depression Trough | 5.6 | +13.8% |
| Jan 1966 | Post-War Bull Peak | 24.1 | +3.6% |
| Aug 1982 | Secular Bear Trough | 6.6 | +17.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Tech Bubble Peak | 44.2 | −1.4% |
| Mar 2009 | Financial Crisis Trough | 13.3 | +18.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Post-Pandemic Peak | 38.3 | Pending |
CAPE = current price divided by the 10-year moving average of real (inflation-adjusted) earnings. Returns shown are annualized S&P 500 total returns for the decade following each date.