Long-Term Market Research
Rigorous, data-driven analysis on equity market history, valuation, and long-term return dynamics.
Markets do not move randomly over long periods. They alternate between extended secular bull and bear phases — lasting 13 to 20 years — driven by the interplay of valuations, earnings growth, and investor psychology. Understanding these cycles is foundational to long-term investment thinking.
Dividends have historically accounted for roughly 40% of the S&P 500's total return, yet they are systematically ignored by investors focused on price appreciation. A quantitative case for treating income as a compounding engine.
The Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio is the most empirically reliable valuation metric for predicting long-term equity returns. An analysis of its history, predictive power, and current implications.
The single most powerful variable in long-term investing is not stock selection, market timing, or manager skill — it is the duration over which capital is allowed to compound. A rigorous look at the data.